CARE GAP BETWEEN WATFORD AND DACORUM SET TO GROW AS EMERGENCY DEMAND SOARS

22 December 2023
|In News, News Updates
|By philip

Demand for urgent and emergency care is likely to soar as the population ages, new NHS figures reveal.

Older people need NHS care much more than younger people, with people in their 70s for example having more ‘consultant episodes’ than any other age group.

But, in Dacorum’s case, the NHS is planning to meet the demand for emergency and urgent care by forcing many more people to make the journey to Watford General – and will fail to provide adequately for care in Hemel Hempstead.

Dacorum Council will need to be wary of the NHS plans to sharply increase the Borough’s care gap with Watford when considering the next step on a possible Health Campus or Hub for Hemel.

Stunning figures produced by the umbrella NHS body for Herts and West Essex, the ICB, project huge rises in numbers in the whole area’s elderly age groups between 2018 and 2043:

  • A rise of well over 70% in the number of over-85s, and
  • A rise of over 40% in the number of over-65s 

This ICB graph sums that up, with the top purple line showing projected numbers of over-85s and the yellow line showing over-65s.

 

And what is the West Herts Trust going to do to meet the rapid rise in demand? In the years between 2019 and 2036, they plan to provide for:

  • A rise of 30% in emergency department activity at Watford General, from just over 107,000 to nearly 140,000 cases a year
  • A rise of just over 6% in cases at Hemel urgent treatment centre, from about 40,000 to 42,600 a year, well below what is needed in light of Dacorum’s ageing and growing population

The whole point of urgent treatment centres is to divert patients away from accident and emergency departments if they are not in a very serious condition. The Trust seem happy to ignore that sensible policy, in order to ensure that Watford General gets the bulk of development, whatever the demand from the Borough of Dacorum.

There will also be a 20,000 rise in routine appointments at Watford General, against a 7,000 rise in Hemel Hempstead.

THE PLANS UNDERLINE ONCE MORE THE BLATANT BIAS OF THE ‘LOCAL’ NHS TRUST IN FAVOUR OF WATFORD GENERAL AND AGAINST ADEQUATE DEVELOPMENT FOR DACORUM.

UNLESS THEY ARE STOPPED, THE NHS WILL MAKE DACORUM PEOPLE MORE RELIANT ON THE INACCESSIBLE AND SHAMBOLIC WATFORD GENERAL.